What are MRP polls and can they predict election results accurately?
How a novel technique to predict Britain’s general election works
THERE IS LITTLE doubt about the likely victor of Britain’s general election on July 4th: with a lead of 20 percentage points in national opinion polls, the Labour Party is extremely likely to win. But there is uncertainty about the size of Labour’s majority in Britain’s 650-seat House of Commons. Some polling firms have published seat predictions using a novel technique known as multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP). What are these polls—and how accurate are they?
Explore more
How will mines dropped by drones change warfare?
They make attacks on tanks more precise and troops easier to trap
What do Greenlanders think of being bought?
Donald Trump’s desire for Greenland, and a shabby visit by his son, reignite the independence debate
What would Donald Trump gain from seizing the Panama Canal?
The president-elect claims the crossing is controlled by China and rips off American consumers
Where does Santa come from?
How a miracle-working Greek bishop, Dutch folk figure and early New York icon became the ubiquitous symbol of Christmas
Who are the main rebel groups in Syria?
They were united against the country’s dictator. Now they have little in common
Is RFK junior right to say America allows more toxins than the EU?
He is, but things are slowly beginning to change